The short answer: it is not off-trend. July's cost to acquire a new customer sits right in the middle of the 2026 range. June was an unusually efficient peak, so the month-on-month step looks bigger than it really is, and July is still cheaper than last July on nearly double the revenue.
July NC-CPA
£52.81
vs June £41.42 (+29%)
2026 Monthly Avg
£50
July is right at the average
NC-CPA vs Last July
-8%
cheaper year on year
Revenue vs Last July
+91%
on ~2.3x the ad spend
The Hero Chart
New-Customer CPA by Month, 2026
July (£52.81) lands level with March and below April and May. June was the outlier low, not July the outlier high. * July is month-to-date, 1 to 22.
Year on Year, Every Month
2025 vs 2026 by Month
For most of the year we have deliberately paid a little more per new customer to scale hard (spend up double or triple year on year), and revenue has followed. June and July are the only two months where CPA actually improved year on year, so July is on the good side of the pattern.
Month
NC-CPA 2025
NC-CPA 2026
CPA YoY
Revenue YoY
Jan
£43.30
£45.21
+4%
+116%
Feb
£36.37
£42.64
+17%
+109%
Mar
£38.94
£52.92
+36%
+68%
Apr
£43.36
£63.71
+47%
+70%
May
£44.28
£54.23
+22%
+160%
Jun
£60.56
£41.42
-32%
+231%
Jul (1-22)
£57.19
£52.81
-8%
+91%
Why June Did Not Repeat
Three Things Weighed On July
None of these pushed us below our yearly trend. They explain why July settled back to normal instead of holding June's exceptional peak.
No Launch
Nothing new dropped in July
Every prior month had a fresh launch (Rose, Citronella, Tomato) that acquires new customers cheaply on novelty. July leaned on existing summer lines, which always cost more to acquire on.
Fatigue
Tomato, our top performer, is tiring
Spend on Tomato rose 76% month on month but cost per purchase rose 58% and conversion fell from 4.4% to 2.8%. Frequency stayed flat, so this is softening demand, not worn-out creative.
Weather
A prolonged UK heatwave
Candle demand genuinely dips in sustained heat. It has been hot for weeks with more forecast. Last July did not have this, which is part of why last July held up better than last June and this July has not.
SeaSalt
SeaSalt sells, but does not acquire cheaply when pushed
SeaSalt units are up ~50% year on year, but as a dedicated paid campaign this July it converted at ~3.2%, well below our launch products (4.5 to 8%). Without a launch moment it costs more to acquire on.
Bottom Line
The Takeaway
July's new-customer CPA is normal for the year and better than last July. The month-on-month rise is a comparison against June, our most efficient month of 2026, not a decline. We are testing a new landing page on the top ad to recover some conversion, and the bigger levers are a fresh launch moment and easing off Tomato as the weather turns.